A new report commissioned by the Mechanical Contracting Education and Research Foundation and the Mechanical Contractors Association of America outlines major societal and technological changes that could affect the industry within the next 15 years.
"Five Key Trends for the Future of the Mechanical Contracting Industry," written by Atul Dighe principal and senior futurist with the consulting firm Social Technologies LLC, identifies the challenges and opportunities the mechanical contracting industry will encounter between now and 2020.
"This project will help enlighten members on what the future holds,"MCERF President Robert FitzGerald said. That way they can be proactive instead of reactive and have a greater impact on their own futures." Among the report's findings:Workforce 2020 - This trend dealt with the mechanical contracting industry's need to amuct more youth and minorities to its ranks.
The report notes that Hispanics are the country's largest minority group and that by 2020 they will be the largest population group in the prospective labor pool for the construction industry. As such, their impact on society will increase during the next 20 years.At the same time, a large number of Baby Boomers will have retired while the "wired" or "millennial generation" - children born between 1980 and 2000 - will have entered the workforce. Contractors will need to learn how to attract and embrace this high-tech, racially integrated group their future workforce, the report said.
Evolving Value Chain - Job site roles and skills are experiencing a blurring of boundaries, which could create new revenue models. "By 2020, the distinctions among electrical, mechanical and sheet metal contractors will be tough to make," the study stated.
General contractors could be replaced by "virtual GCs," groups comprised of specialty contractors working together.
Additionally, the next 10 years will see an increase in reverse auctions and direct purchases of equipment by end users. Future profit may be based mostly on customer service, reliability and project coordination. MCERF is studying the "value-chain" trend and will issue a report in August.
Era of Rebuilding - With many structures created during the building boom of the 1960s now entering the final years of their lifespans, the demand for renovation of '60s era buildings and infrastructure will comprise a large portion of the commercial construction market, the report noted. "New buildings may not be the majority of business - renovation may be the greater marketplace," FitzGerald said.
Changes in sensor technology - Today's sensors monitor a variety of factors, including temperature, air and water quality and location. But by 2015, sensor technology built into mechanical systems would be able to self-diagnose problems, warn of future difficulties and, in some cases, make repairs. For example, the report said by 2005, Wal-Mart - the world's largest company - will require that all products be equipped with radio-frequency identification tags that store and provide information on consumer behavior to the manufacturer.
"This technology may replacg bar codes," FitzGerald said.
Materials Science - Nanotechnology, which would allow industries to manipulate atoms to create new materials, "will change the paradigm of construction from valve by valve, unit by unit, to atom by atom," the report said.
Materials used in future construction might be significantly different from those used today. For instance, the first structure erected on any future jobsite could be a factory that will produce project materials.
